Next War?

With the way the world is going at the minute where is looking like the next place british troops may be deployed....what's your guess?

 

my bet is:

1. some sort of civil unrest like the london riots but this time the military might get involved.
2.iran, the last threat to america in the middle east. if america goes to war britian would follow.

possible but highly unlikely:
1. Russia
2.china
3. north Korea

if we go to war, it may start of as conventional but will ultimately lead to a nuclear war. as i sate 'the best form of sovereignty is when a country has nuclear weapons'.

i also believe the British military may have to increase ground troops to familiar hot posts like Afghanistan which the Taliban control 70% of the country and there is a threat of taking the major cities like kabul. other than that am not sure of future deployments of soldiers excluding special forces.

 

Yes I was thinking along the lines of Afghan/Iraq and also possibly some of the african countries where extremists are operating.

 

Yes most likely Afghan not sure of Iraq as they have gotten rid of most extremist group like Isis by themselves. Afghanistan is in a real pickle, the war wasn't and still isn't popular and western countries are scared to send ground troops to avoid casualties in what is viewed as an unwinnable war but Afghanistan is damn nearly taken over by the Taliban thus will always be fighting to do there.

 

Yeah I read a thing recently saying Taliban are now active in over 70% of afghanistan controlling large parts of it and its now more dangerous than ever with daily attacks.

 

Russia no, Why China? We get along. North Korea has simmered down a bit and Afghan if blokes went back in itd be more under the radar to avoid looking like we wasted time

 

Where would be your guess if any?

 

Vegans & Feminism.

 

I couldn't sign up quick enough if that was the case

 

Food for thought.


Britain cautions against hasty exit of AU troops from Somalia

Britain has cautioned against premature withdrawal of African
Union troops from Somalia, saying such a move could be detrimental
to the stability of the Horn of African nation. Harriett
Baldwin, visiting British minister for Africa, instead called for a
conditions-based, gradual withdrawal of the troops, based on
the strength of the Somali security forces.


US building drone base in Somalia to expands war on Al
Shabaab?

The U.S. Defense Department awarded a more than $12 million
contract for ‘emergency runway repairs’ at Camp Baledogle,
Somalia, last month. Now, the new runway repairs appear to
be stepping up the capabilities of the airfield there and could
be the harbinger of an expanding U.S. footprint in Somalia. U.S.
Africa Command confirmed to Air Force Times that it operates
the facilities at Camp Baledogle alongside African partners,
but remained scant on details regarding what aircraft currently,
or are planned, to fly from there.

Curtsey of latest MAST report.

 

i think western countries are scared to send any form of ground combat troops to Somalia, especially americans after black hawk down. i think there will be more drone strikes. however i think there is chance for conflinct anywhere where we could get involved.

 

A rethink perhaps........


June 10, 2018 / 6:05 AM / 4 months ago

U.S. soldier killed in Somalia firefight identified

(Reuters) - A U.S. commando killed in a Somalia firefight against al-Shabaab militants was identified as U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Alexander Conrad, 26, of Chandler, Arizona, the Department of Defense said late Saturday.

Sgt. Conrad was killed and four other commandos were wounded Friday during an operation against the militants, the U.S. military said.

Conrad, born in Mesa, Arizona, was attached to the 1st Battalion, 3rd Special Forces Group, Airborne, in Fort Bragg, North Carolina, said Lt. Colonel Robert Bockholt, an Army spokesman.

He was a Human Intelligence, noncommissioned officer.

Conrad, and the U.S. special operations forces were fighting alongside about 800 troops from the Somali National Security Forces and Kenyan Defense Forces when they were attacked about 2:45 p.m. Friday by mortars and small arms fire.

The troops had been on a mission to clear al-Shabaab from contested areas as well as villages the militants controlled, “and establish a permanent combat outpost” to expand the reach of the Somali state, the U.S. military’s Africa Command said in a statement.

Although one of the wounded Americans did not receive additional care after being treated in the field, the other three were medically evacuated for follow-up care.

Conrad was previously deployed to Afghanistan twice in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, for a total of more than 13 months.

He had received numerous awards and was posthumously awarded the Purple Heart and Meritorious Service Medal, Bockholt said.

About 500 U.S. troops are deployed in Somalia.

 

Yup, balkans or somewhere in Africa.

 

You're ruling out Spain, they might want Gibraltar real bad and with us leaving the EU and right wing parties becoming more popular they may want it. Just saying it's an interesting thought.

 

*Straw clutching intensifies*

Does it look as if British troops are going to be deployed in any kind of force into a "conflict" zone any time soon? I would have thought the politicians have a little on their plate already.

 

Is Somalia losing the war against terrorist group al-Shabaab?



by Jamie Read · 2 days ago

Somalia has been engaged in a long and bloody war with al-Shabaab. Some would claim the government is losing control; others would claim they were never in control. Currently, Somalia’s central government and the terrorist organization seem to be trading blows evenly. We hear of airstrikes killing hordes of al-Shabaab fighters one day, then the next day nearly a dozen people have been killed by an explosion in Mogadishu and al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Al-Shabaab is a thoroughly trained and capable combat organization operating in Somalia, and they are extremely loyal to al-Qaeda and their cause. This was tested when the Islamic State approached al-Shabaab and called for them to side with their organization. In a 15-minute broadcast, al-Shabaab commanders ordered their fighters to cease communication with any Islamic State representatives, and those who didn’t would be punished. While this caused a rift within the organization, only a small number of fighters and one officer left al-Shabaab and retreated north to Puntland.

Al-Shabaab still commands respect and support from some Somali communities. The group’s fearless style of fighting and early morning raids on African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) bases have earned them a reputation as a fierce fighting force in Somalia. Their renowned intelligence unit is allegedly one of the most clandestine in the world, and their ability to continue to assault the central government within Mogadishu is a testament to their capabilities. Al-Shabaab is possibly one of the most fierce and enduring terrorist groups in Africa.

Their latest attack on the outskirts of Mogadishu has killed two colonels and nine soldiers from the Somali National Alliance (SNA). Their convoy struck an IED while in transit from Mogadishu to the Dhanaane area. Colonel Abdisalaan Aden has been named as one of the officers killed; he was returning to his unit after talks with the central government.

Things aren’t looking hopeful in the short term. Upcoming elections are not too far away and the African Union Mission will be drawing down forces in the region. Will the central government be able to deal a decisive blow to al-Shabaab, or will Somalia become another Afghanistan?

 

United States Africa Command airstrikes decimate 32 al-Shabaab terrorist fighters in Somalia



by Jamie Read · February 27, 2019

"On February 24th, United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) carried out airstrikes near Beledweyne, Somalia, wiping out at least 32 al-Shabaab fighters. The airstrikes targeted the Islamist fighters as they traveled between locations in a rural area of the Hiran region. The U.S. regularly utilizes airstrikes in Somalia as a means to support the fragile Somali government, which has been struggling against the al-Shabaab insurgency for years.

According to U.S. AFRICOM’s Twitter account, “To support the federal government of Somalia’s continued efforts to degrade al-Shabaab, U.S. forces conducted an airstrike approximately 23 miles east of Beledweyne, Hiran Region, Somalia, on February 24, 2019.”

This attack comes after al-Shabaab declared on February 15th that it had ordered a mortar attack on the Baledogle Airfield that killed U.S. and Somali forces. The radical militants issued a statement claiming they had killed three American soldiers and five Somali members of the Danab (Lightning) Advanced Infantry Battalion.

U.S. and Somali forces have planned a number of precision strikes to suppress the violence and support the Somali government’s foothold in the country. Although these targeted strikes have risen in frequency, it is uncertain what lasting impact, if any, the strikes are having on the militant group.

Al-Shabaab is known to have a strong following in the rural parts of Somalia, making it more difficult for the U.S. to strike a decisive blow to the group or diminish their recruiting efforts. Some also speculate that al-Shabaab is being supplied by an outside entity with money and weapons to keep the insurgency going.

The radical group has shown no signs of weakening despite the persistent claims that each of these airstrikes kills high numbers of insurgents. With community support and outsider involvement, al-Shabaab will continue their war regardless of the risks."

(Airstrikes alone will not win the war! Boots on the ground make the difference.)

 

US military mission in Somalia could take seven years to complete!

By Ryan Browne, CNN

Updated 1319 GMT (2119 HKT) April 13, 2019


This week President Donald Trump signed an executive order extending a presidential declaration of a national emergency concerning Somalia for another year, calling the Islamist insurgency plaguing that country an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to the US.

But even if that is the last extension of the declaration, US defense officials say the mission in the country is likely to take years to complete.

The fight there hinges on US Special Operations Forces being able to train an elite Somali army unit capable of defeating al Qaeda-linked militants on the ground. The commitment to the East African nation comes after the President has signaled a desire to reduce US troop levels across the globe and as the administration is in the process of withdrawing forces from Syria.

While officials say the effort is making progress, they tell CNN that the US training mission is likely to not be completed until 2026.

For nearly two years, a small team of US Special Operations forces has been embedded with the Somali National Army, assisting in the fight against the militant group Al-Shabaab. As well as advising on airstrikes and ground assaults, the Navy SEAL-led team's primary task is to train and build Somalia its own elite light infantry force.



Named Danab, which in Somali means lightning, the force currently numbers only about 500 soldiers, too few to carry out operations in a country with a coastline almost as long as the east coast of the US. The plan, US defense officials say, is to eventually build Danab into a force of 3,000 soldiers capable of clearing militants from villages and towns across Somalia.

"The plan is to build two companies a year, with the end-state being five battalions and a brigade headquarters element," Becky Farmer, a spokesperson for Africa Command which oversees US military operations on the continent, told CNN in a statement.

"We think it's going to take approximately seven years for the Somalis to absorb all of these forces," a defense official familiar with the US counterterrorism strategy in Somalia told CNN.

"If everything works out and however many miracles line up to make this happen it could go faster, and it could go slower," he added.

A quarter century after the events surrounding "Black Hawk Down," the incident that killed 18 US soldiers in Mogadishu, the US military finds itself more actively engaged in Somalia than at any time since. Though the US has higher troop levels in Niger and Djibouti, Somalia is the only place in Africa where the US military is regularly carrying out airstrikes against enemy forces.

The Pentagon has about 500 to 600 personnel in Somalia according to US Africa Command.

While US military advisers have been in Somalia since at least 2013, the effort has gotten a major boost under the Trump Administration, which volunteered to undertake the Danab advisory mission in 2017 in addition to expanding drone strikes, and in December reopened the American diplomatic mission in Mogadishu for the first time since 1991.

Trump authorized the military to carry out precision strikes targeting Al-Shabaab in March 2017. Prior to that the US military was authorized to conduct airstrikes only in defense of advisers on the ground.

So far this year, at least 255 fighters from Al-Shabaab have been killed in 30 airstrikes, according to figures released by US Africa Command. In 2018 the US conducted 47 airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab, killing about 337 militants. In 2017 the US carried out 35 airstrikes and in 2016 it conducted just 15.

"The bottom line is we're taking formations and fighters and leaders off the battlefield. And that is having effect on the network," Brig. Gen. William West, the deputy director of operations for Africa Command, told CNN in a statement.

The increase in airstrikes though has been criticized by some members of Congress and outside groups like Amnesty International, which has accused the US of killing civilians in Somalia.

While the US military has rejected Amnesty's allegations, US Africa Command announced earlier this month that it had determined that one of its 2018 drone strikes had killed two civilians, the first ever such acknowledgment by the US military in Somalia.

US military officials stress that the airstrikes are only one component of the US military's overall campaign in Somalia.

"Every strike we take, whether it's on the pace that we're on this year or on the pace that we've been on in previous years, is all done in support of the strategy. And the strategy supports the goals of security and stability in Somalia," Maj. Gen. Gregg Olson, the director of operations for US Africa Command said in a statement to CNN.

The administration regards the fight against the militant group Al-Shabaab in Somalia as critical to protecting America's primary strategic allies in the region such as Kenya and Ethiopia which have been hit by Al Shabaab-linked terror attacks in the recent years.

London Meeting

The current strategy is partly a result of a May 2017 conference held in London, where a group of countries including the UK, US, Kenya and Ethiopia along with representatives from the UN, African Union and European Union, met to discuss the future of Somalia.

For years the task of fighting Al-Shabaab in Somalia had fallen to the African Union-led peacekeeping mission, AMISOM. But in the months leading up to the London Conference, Al-Shabaab proved that it was still a potent force on the battlefield with its fighters overrunning three AMISOM bases, seizing weaponry, armored vehicles and ammunition.

In London, a plan was agreed on that called for the creation of a regular army of 18,000 troops and 32,000 federal and state police to eventually replace the African Union-led peacekeeping mission, AMISOM which had spent years fighting Al-Shabaab.

Then-Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis agreed that the US would take responsibility for "training specific numbers of proficient and mobile light infantry capable of defeating Al-Shabaab," referring to the Danab unit.

The rest of Somalia's security forces were to be trained by international advisers from the EU, Turkey and the UAE on a bilateral basis. Coordinating that effort has been a challenge, US officials say, and has led to some less than stellar results.

A State Department official told CNN that while there have been some successes in integrating Somali troops trained by Turkish and UAE advisers into the national army, many of the 6,000 Somali troops trained by the EU did not join the national army and "most of them have gone off to militias and local clans."

"It is a work in progress," he added.

The US military does attempt to coordinate these various efforts while also providing support to AMISOM troops via a military coordination cell that is led by a one star general in Mogadishu.

Despite those previous misfires, US officials are confident that the focus of the US-effort, Danab, will stay loyal to the central government.

"Ultimately, the Danab as a unit fall under the central Somali government and we have no indications of dual loyalty," Farmer, the spokesperson for Africa, told CNN.

US military officials say that in the past Al-Shabaab has exploited local grievances among the many clans that make-up Somalia as a means of gaining power so the US has made a concerted effort to ensure that the forces comprising Danab are representative of the areas where they operate helping to gain the trust of the locals, something that could be contributing to the slow pace of increasing its size.

"The Danab are clan-appropriate and integrated units of the Somali National Army, with one battalion aligned to each Federal Member State, in order to provide locally acceptable and trusted forces of the Somali National Army," Farmer said.

"The indications we've received on the ground are that the Somali people hold the Danab in the highest esteem as a result of these efforts," Farmer added.

Signs of Progress

American diplomats, military officers, and USAID officials all told CNN that they see progress in Somalia, with many citing increased security in major cities and towns and government reform efforts.

Trump's extension of the emergency declaration came the same day Somalia's Prime Minister Hassan Khayre visited the White House for a meeting with Trump's National Security Adviser John Bolton.

Khayre, who has been praised by American diplomats and USAID officials for his efforts to reform Somalia's economy and security forces, also visited the Pentagon Thursday.

One major success is the town of Kismayo, which was recaptured in 2012 after it was once considered an Al-Shabaab stronghold.

US officials say that the Somali security forces have managed to expand the security bubble around Kismayo out some 25 miles from the town. USAID officials told CNN that at least 1,000 families have returned to Kismayo.

Still, the focus remains on securing the areas around the capital Mogadishu where Al-Shabaab, despite having been driven from the city, can still carry out terror attacks. An attack last month killed dozens.

The hope is that eventually the elite Somali troops will be able to drive Al-Shabaab from strategic corridors and areas near the capital, and keep them from attacking Mogadishu.

For now though, the Somalis are still heavily reliant on US forces, particularly for functions like planning and intelligence. "We're still involved in every single operation," a defense official told CNN.

Though American advisers still accompany Somali troops out in the field, officials say they've taken steps to mitigate risks to US personnel.

"We always work to stay no closer than the last line of cover or concealment and we only go outside the wire when we do not think contact is expected or likely," a US defense official familiar with US intelligence in Somalia told CNN.

It can still be a dangerous mission.

Last month the US called in an airstrike in Somalia's Lower Shabelle Region after a Somali-led force that was being advised by US personnel came under attack.

The last US soldier that was killed in Somalia was in June 2018, US Army Sgt. Alexander Conrad was killed and three other soldiers were wounded by "indirect fire" after they came under attack while helping local forces set up the kind of combat outpost the US military sees as critical to its strategy in Somalia.

The US military estimates that Al-Shabaab commands somewhere between 5,000 to 7,000 fighters and still controls about 20% of Somalia's territory.

It's a far cry from Al-Shabaab's heyday when it controlled most of the country including the towns of Kismayo and Baraawe and even some parts of the capital, Mogadishu.

"Folks in the United States, they think Blackhawk Down and things like that," a USAID official told CNN, saying that the country has made major improvements in recent years, thanks largely to the improved relationship between the US and Somali governments since the December re-establishment of the US diplomatic mission in Mogadishu, the first such presence since 1991.

After the fighting

A big part of making sure the military gains against Al-Shabaab are sustained is ensuring that forces are able to hold the recaptured territory. Doing that requires a healthy dose of humanitarian aid.

But the US development aid budget to Somalia is limited, at only about $60 million according to USAID officials.

"We have a lean operation," one USAID official said.

Things could get even leaner as the Trump administration's 2020 State Department budget request is seeking only $58 million in "Economic Support and Development Funds for Somalia, a decrease of some $15 million from the previous year.

The US does also provide hundreds of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid to meet more short term emergency requirements like famine relief.

And even if Al-Shabaab is defeated, officials say other security challenges remain.

"It's not just Al-Shabaab, There are clan grievances here that go back hundreds of years, that has to be sorted out too," one USAID official said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/13/politics/us-military-somalia-mission/index.html
(Click above for more info)


Good beaches for amphibious landings.

 

""The Danab are clan-appropriate and integrated units of the Somali National Army, with one battalion aligned to each Federal Member State, in order to provide locally acceptable and trusted forces of the Somali National Army," Farmer said."

The phrase 'herding cats' springs to mind!

 

Russia and China are mutual economic allies as is Iran, Russia is also a net supplier of gas for power generation across the EU. There is no political appetite for us to get involve in anything beyond proxy wars. Artillery and Russian/Chinese supply chain would utterly decimate us in a ground war. USA may not back Europe under the current administration, food for thought.

Most likely things the collective "we" will be involved in is, African/Middle Eastern OPs as we currently do in some way or another or domestic civil unrest, however that scenario is unlikely.